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Statistical downscaling of temperature, radiation and potential evapotranspiration to produce a multiple GCM ensemble mean for a selection of sites in Ireland

Fealy, Rowan and Sweeney, John (2008) Statistical downscaling of temperature, radiation and potential evapotranspiration to produce a multiple GCM ensemble mean for a selection of sites in Ireland. Irish Geography, 41 (1). pp. 1-27. ISSN 1939-4055

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Abstract

Irish climate is experiencing changes which have been found to be consistent with those occurring at a global scale and there is now growing confidence that these changes are largely attributable to global warming. Between 1890-2004, mean annual temperatures in Ireland rose by 0.7C, based on the data from four, long-term monitoring, synoptic stations. In the absence of strict emissions controls, a doubling of global atmospheric concentrations of CO2 is likely by the end of the 21st century. As a consequence, global temperatures are projected to increase by between 1.8 to 4oC over the same period depending on the climate sensitivity to increased levels of greenhouse gases. In order to determine the likely impact on Irish temperatures and related climatic variables, this paper illustrates a technique for downscaling Global Climate Model output for a selection of sites in Ireland. Results of a weighted ensemble mean, derived from multiple GCMs, are presented in an attempt to address some of the various uncertainties inherent in climate modelling. Projected changes in selected indices of temperature extremes are also presented for the ensemble A2 emissions scenario, as changes in extremes are likely to have a larger and more immediate impact on human society than changes in the mean climate state.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: The definitive version is avaialble at http://pdfserve.informaworld.com/564009_731218553_791562903.pdf
Keywords: Statistical downscaling; Ireland; Temperature; radiation; Potential evapotranspiration.
Subjects: Social Sciences > Geography
Item ID: 1851
Identification Number: 10.1080/00750770801909235
Depositing User: Rowan Fealy
Date Deposited: 16 Feb 2010 12:34
Journal or Publication Title: Irish Geography
Publisher: Routledge
Refereed: Yes
URI:

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