On the Influence of Weather Forecast Errors in Short-Term Load Forecasting Models
Fay, D. and Ringwood, J.V. and Condon, M. (2004) On the Influence of Weather Forecast Errors in Short-Term Load Forecasting Models. In: Control 2004, September 6-9 2004, University of Bath, U.K..
Weather information is an important factor in load forecasting models. This weather information usually takes the form of actual weather readings. However, online operation of load forecasting models requires the use of weather forecasts, with associated weather forecast errors. A technique is proposed to model weather forecast errors to reflect current accuracy. A load forecasting model is then proposed which combines the forecasts of several load forecasting models. This approach allows the relationship between weather and load to be determined without weather forecast error. The effect of the weather forecast error is then minimised during the combination stage.
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