Abstract

International Context: As a mid-latitude country Ireland can expect its future temperature changes to mirror quite closely those of the globe as a whole. Best estimates of global temperature change by the end of the present century are currently in the region 1.8–4.0°C1. Regional Context: Weighted Ensemble Downscaling from Global Climate Models Global climate models (GCMs) have greatly improved in reliability and resolution as computing power has increased and better inputs from earth observation have become available. Despite this, they remain too coarse in terms of their grid size to enable climate scenarios at the scale necessary for impact analysis to be achieved. This study employs a statistical downscaling approach to overcome these difficulties and also to provide new information on model uncertainty with a view to reducing uncertainty in key sectors such as water resource management, agriculture and biodiversity.