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A Preliminary Investigation of Future Climate Scenarios for Ireland

Sweeney, John and Fealy, Rowan (2002) A Preliminary Investigation of Future Climate Scenarios for Ireland. Biology and Environment: Proceedings of the Royal Irish Academy, 102B (3). pp. 125-128. ISSN 0791-7945

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Abstract

Ongoing improvements in computing and in climate modelling now permit much more detailed climatic scenarios to be produced as an aid to potential impact assessment. We have employed a downscaling approach, using the UKCIP (UK Climate Impacts Programme) gridded climatology for Ireland at a 10km resolution to produce preliminary scenarios for temperature and precipitation for the year 2050. Warming of approximately 0.2OC per decade is indicated. Precipitation changes cannot yet be confidently predicted, though increases are likely during the winter months. Contradictory signals for changes in summer rainfall are evident from model output and circulation typing-based approaches. Increased soil moisture deficits are likely during summer, and increased wetness, is likely during winter, particularly in western Ireland. We make some preliminary comments on the implications of these changes for the natural environment and agricultural practices.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: The authors acknowledge the assistance rendered by the use of the MAGICC/SCENGEN climatic scenario generator produced by the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia with the support of the UNDP-GEF National Communications Support Programme. The UKCIP98 Climatic Scenario CD-ROM has been supplied by the Climate Impacts LINK Project (DETR Contract EPG 1/1/68) on behalf of the UKCIP and the Meteorological Office (Hadley Centre).
Keywords: NIRSA; Climate Change; Ireland; UKCIP; UK Climate Impacts Programme;
Subjects: Social Sciences > Geography
Social Sciences > NIRSA-National Institute for Regional and Spatial Analysis
Item ID: 2685
Depositing User: Rowan Fealy
Date Deposited: 01 Sep 2011 08:54
Journal or Publication Title: Biology and Environment: Proceedings of the Royal Irish Academy
Publisher: Royal Irish Academy
Refereed: Yes
URI:

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