Fusco, Francesco and Ringwood, John
Short-Term Wave Forecasting with AR models in
Real-Time Optimal Control of Wave Energy
In: IEEE International Symposium on Industrial Electronics, 4-7 July, 2010, Bari, Italy.
Time domain control of wave energy converters
requires knowledge of future incident wave elevation in order to
approach conditions for optimal energy extraction. Autoregressive
models revealed to be a promising approach to the prediction
of future values of the wave elevation only from its past history.
Results on real wave observations from different ocean locations
show that AR models allow to achieve very good predictions
for more than one wave period in the future if the focus is put
on low frequency components, which are the most interesting
from a wave energy point of view. For real-time implementation,
however, the lowpass filtering introduces an error in the wave
time series, as well as a delay, and AR models need to be designed
so to be as robust as possible to these errors.
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